It has to be that there are people out there who are so heavily invested in ensuring friction between NNPC Limited and Dangote Refinery that at every turn, they must find a way to pull the trigger on one narrative or the other to push the two into knocking heads in the public space.
It is difficult to understand the role of some so-called experts pushing one-sided narratives on social media, moving from one TV station to the other, demarketing one party while obviously speaking for the other yet pretending to do so for public interest. To what purpose is this relentless campaign to generate bad blood? Whose interest is it serving?
A few weeks back, it was a video demarketing one for the other under the guise of comparing the quality of petrol bought from marketers directly affiliated to Dangote and that from NNPC stations. While that was eventually settled by experts who queried the validity of the experiment process and the conclusion reached, what stood out for me was how it was sidestepped that the major source of supply of products sold by NNPC in the locality in which the experiment purportedly took place was the same Dangote Refinery. Perhaps with assurance that the product purportedly obtained from NNPC was not from the stock sourced from Dangote, the basis of the experiment might have made sense.
Whatever it is, one can’t find any sense in setting out demarketing products by/from NNPC. By the terms of the Naira for Crude Deal, in exchange for the crude supplied to Dangote by NNPC from 1st October 2024, the Dangote Refinery has been supplying PMS and diesel of equivalent value to NNPC for the domestic market, which should make NNPC Limited the lead off-taker of refined products from Dangote. How can it then benefit Dangote Refinery to have products by its lead off-taker, which was sourced from it, labelled as inferior?
Apparently, the major source of discomfort for Dangote Refinery, at the moment, as can be seen in the sponsored campaign materials, is the continued importation of refined products by NNPC and other marketers. While Dangote, its sympathisers and others have expressed concerns about the effect of continued importation on foreign reserves and the exchange rate, others have argued that it is unwise to entrust the fate of the whole country into the hands of a single private operator. Their main concern is that of energy security. While some maintain that it is unwise to have the current refining capacity in the country and still continue to import refined products.
But NNPC Limited takes seriously its mandate to ensure energy security and as a supplier of last resort. Its decisions are reflective not only of its commercial interests as a corporate concern but the long-term interest of Nigeria. As contentious as the issue of continued importation of refined products is, those in the know within NNPC Limited argue that while the company has not imported PMS in 2025, “as a company primarily responsible for ensuring energy security in Nigeria if there were any PMS supply insufficiency in the country, NNPC Limited has the right and responsibility to intervene by importing to bridge the gap. Moreover, the Dangote refinery and all other oil-producing refineries in the country produce less than 50 per cent of Nigeria’s daily consumption”. More so, there is no law prohibiting NNPC Limited from importing when necessary.
Obviously, there are underlying issues within the industry that have not been properly addressed thus creating unease and mistrust. The impression that had been created and pushed by some of the ‘experts’ fanning the embers of strife is that the NNPC had not been meeting its obligations with the supply of crude under the Naira for Crude Deal. That culminated in the false report pushed by some newspapers yesterday that NNPC had unilaterally suspended or cancelled the deal. It is quite strange that those who ran with the news could have so soon forgotten that what was signed was a 6-month deal that started in October.
NNPC has since clarified that with the current deal expiring at the end of this month, and that “discussions are currently ongoing towards emplacing a new contract.” On the supply of crude to Dangote, NNPC claims that it “has made over 48 million barrels of crude oil available to Dangote Refinery since October 2024. In aggregate, NNPC has made over 84 million barrels of crude oil available to the Refinery since its commencement of operations in 2023.”
Without a doubt, there are issues hampering the steady supply of crude from operators to local refiners. The level of production, especially in the face of oil theft, makes it difficult to fulfil all obligations and meet commercial interests, yet be able to meet local needs for refining, especially one denominated in the local currency. There is only so much that the DCSO can make happen in the face of availability constraints. The need to ramp up local production has never been more urgent given that consideration has to be made for forward sale agreements that have also served as an encumbrance.
One must then wonder what the end game is for those out there pushing contrary narratives. Some of these experts who started out disputing the news that the Port Harcourt and Warri Refineries had commenced operation have now shifted to querying how it is that NNPC is still sourcing products elsewhere if indeed refining is going on in Port Harcourt and Warri. It has to be that they have forgotten that the current production capacity of the 2 rehabilitated refineries is only able to meet a tiny fraction of the national demand for products.
NNPC Limited has restated its commitment to “supplying crude oil for local refining based on mutually agreed terms and conditions.” Whatever issues that Dangote Refinery has can best be resolved across the table rather than in the public space. Having ‘experts’ making media rounds raising issues which Dangote Refinery itself has not publicly raised makes one wonder what exactly is going on. The argument being pushed by one of these ‘experts’ that the NNPC Limited is working to stall the progress of the Dangote Refinery is worrisome. He has to help us make it make sense. NNPC Limited has a 7.2% stake in the Dangote Refinery, and it sits on the board. How can it be said that the same NNPC Limited will be working against Dangote Refinery in which it is not only an investor but has worked hard behind the scenes to help it get to where it is today? NNPC can’t be working against its own interest? Both companies have to find a way to work and win together for the sake of Nigeria. It is possible. It is necessary.
Simbo Olorunfemi works for Hoofbeatdotcom, a Nigerian communications consultancy and publisher of Africa Enterprise. Email: Editor@enterpriseafrica.ng
